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Friday, February 27, 2009

Market Apathy - when will it end?

Welcome! As markets hit new lows on Friday February 20 we are registering high levels of apathy on the part of investors. With the exception of Gold and the US Dollar there have been few opportunities for bullish investors. Cash is king and sidelined in anticipation of even worse economic conditions.

What is different about this crash than the crash of 1929? Well lots of things but in my opinion the major difference - the elephant in the room - is WORLD POPULATION. During the last major crash world population was just over a billion. Communications were archaic, international markets barely existed, markets were no where near as accessible or efficient as they are today and governments were far less integrated. The simple fact that there are so many people on the planet implies an urgent need to feed and maintain the approximately 6 billion inhabitants. We all need food, housing, clothing, and medical/educational services to continue. The current sell off in commodities will soon be a distant memory. The planet's ability to provide food to our exploding world population is already stressed to the limit. As a teacher of environmental science I am well aware of the consequences of global warming and its effect on worldwide agriculture. (Australia - major wheat supplier to the world is experiencing the stress of global warming and loss of soil moisture. Expect wheat yields to fall).

And the hits just keep on coming!

When it comes to bad economic news it seems that old adage "misery loves company" holds true. Here are some of the headlines out of Britain this morning:Liberty losses soar to more than £2.7bn, RBS taps Treasury for a further £13bn: The beleaguered bank, already nearly 70% state-owned,House prices fall 1.8% in February: UK house prices continued on their downward trajectory in February. Economies are grim worldwide but next to Iceland the state of affairs in the British Isles is bleak. With all of Europe in a spinning vortex of deepening recession/depression the financial capital and money center of EuroLand, London is in dire straights. Political leaders talk of a "decade long" recession.

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